Mar 22, 2012

A Light Chance of Falling

Bayesian inference is a powerful heuristic to understand the world. Basically, it states that predicting the future is based on the past.
I use this concept to understand how to train and perform. I tend to fall on the same type of move (over and over). My prior probability of failure on large, rounded feet and big pulls on pinches is relatively high. My prior probability of failure on crimps and topping out a climbs is relatively low.

That means if I want to maximally train I need to focus on the former. My posterior probability of failure will be high (aka I will more fall on lower grades) but will decrease my prior probability of failure in the future. On the other hand, I should focus on my strengths if I want to maximally perform (low posterior probability of failure).